Can Artificial Climate Trends in Global Reanalysis be Reduced by Dynamical Downscaling:A Case Study of China          下载免费PDF全文

ZHAO Tian-Bao  ZHAO De-Ming 《大气和海洋科学快报》2011,4(1):30-35

In this study,the ability of dynamical downscaling for reduction of artificial climate trends in global reanalysis is tested in China.Dynamical downscaling is performed using a 60-km horizontal resolution Regional Integrated Environmental Model System (RIEMS) forced by the NCEP-Department of Energy (DOE) reanalysis II (NCEP-2).The results show that this regional climate model (RCM) can not only produce dynamically consistent fine scale fields of atmosphere and land surface in the regional domain,but it also has the ability to minimize artificial climate trends existing in the global reanalysis to a certain extent.As compared to the observed 2-meter temperature anomaly averaged across China,our model can simulate the observed inter-annual variation and variability as well as reduce artificial climate trends in the reanalysis by approximately 0.10 C decade 1 from 1980 to 2007.The RIEMS can effectively reduce artificial trends in global reanalysis for areas in western China,especially for regions with high altitude mountains and deserts,as well as introduce some new spurious changes in other local regions.The model simulations overestimated observed winter trends for most areas in eastern China with the exception of the Tibetan Plateau,and it greatly overestimated observed summer trends in the Sichuan Basin located in southwest China.This implies that the dynamical downscaling of RCM for long-term trends has certain seasonal and regional dependencies due to imperfect physical processes and parameterizations.  相似文献   

Geomorphic Controls on Historical Channel Planform Changes on the Lower Pages River,Hunter Valley,Australia     

Wayne D. Erskine 《The Australian geographer》2011,42(3):289-307

Historical planform changes in a 14.7 km reach of the lower Pages River were determined to assess whether they were autogenic (inherent in the river regime) or allogenic (driven by external changes) in nature so as to better focus river management activities and river restoration works. A pattern metamorphosis or complete change in river morphology occurred during the February 1955 flood. The peak discharge of this event exceeded the slope and grain size (intrinsic) threshold for braiding, converting the narrow, slightly sinuous stream to a wide, braided-like river. Five subsequent intrinsic threshold-exceeding floods did not cause further bar development because an over-widened channel already existed. Autogenic channel planform changes included sinuosity variations due to lateral migration and pattern metamorphosis due to the exceedance of a discharge–slope–grain size geomorphic threshold. Allogenic channel planform changes included: (1) realignment/channel straightening and artificial cutoffs by river training works; (2) lateral migration by increased bank erodibility due to riparian vegetation clearing; (3) lateral migration by the operation of a transitive geomorphic threshold involving the onset of a flood-dominated regime after 1946 and increased catchment runoff after 1830 due to large-scale clearing of catchment vegetation; and (4) the occurrence of a large flood in February 1955. Multiple forcing factors have clearly caused historical channel planform changes of the lower Pages River, making the design of river management and restoration works a complex matter outside the scope of simple formulaic protocols.  相似文献   

地形湿度指数算法误差的定量评价   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

包黎莉  秦承志  朱阿兴 《地理科学进展》2011,30(1):57-64

地形湿度指数(TWI)能够定量指示地形对土壤湿度空间分布的控制,是一种应用广泛的地形属性.目前基于栅格DEM的TWI计算方法结果各异,因此有必要对'TWI算法进行定量评价.对TWI算法通常是应用实际DEM数据进行评价.但实际DEM中存在的数据源误差会干扰对算法误差的评价.针对该问题,本文介绍了一种用不含数据源误差的人造...  相似文献   

紫外辐射增强对不同发育阶段荒漠藻结皮光合作用的影响   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

苏延桂  李新荣  赵昕  王正宁 《中国沙漠》2011,30(4):889-893

 以腾格里沙漠东南缘自然植被区、51龄和26龄人工植被区藻结皮为研究对象,模拟研究了2%紫外辐射增强对不同发育阶段结皮叶绿素a含量(Chl-a)和净光合速率的影响。结果表明:①紫外辐射增强显著抑制了51龄和26龄人工植被区藻结皮的Chl-a含量(P<0.05),紫外辐射增强后不同发育阶段藻结皮的Chl-a含量无显著差异(P<0.05); ②紫外辐射增强显著抑制了3个植被区藻结皮的净光合速率(P<0.05),紫外辐射增强处理后,自然植被区,51龄和26龄人工植被区藻结皮的最大净光合速率分别为1.8、2.2 μmol·m-2·s-1和1.9 μmol·m-2·s-1,比对照分别下降了21%~49%,12%~22%和24%~59%。方差分析表明,紫外辐射增强后,3个发育阶段的藻结皮净光合速率无显著差异(P<0.05)。本研究表明,紫外辐射增强通过降低荒漠藻结皮的光合色素含量,减少了结皮的净光合速率,从而会对荒漠区藻结皮的生产力产生影响。  相似文献   

高寒山区退耕地不同植被恢复方式下群落稳定性     

赵成章  董小刚  石福习  达光文  杨文斌 《山地学报》2011,29(1)

稳定的群落结构是退耕地生态系统恢复的主要标志之一.以祁连山东段旱泉沟流域退耕区为例,采用野外调查和室内分析相结合的方法,研究了建植6 a的人工草地群落稳定性,结果表明:人工草地在短期内形成了不同于撂荒地的植被格局,草地群落盖度、高度和地上生物量特性明显优于撂荒地和天然草地,部分人工草地物种丰富度和多样性高于撂荒地,功能群结构仍以多年生禾草占优势,无芒雀麦+紫花苜蓿混播草地多样性指数低,处于高产和稳定阶段;各草地根系主要分布在0～10 cm土层,不同草地类型0～20 cm土壤含水量变化最大,4种人工草地对土壤水分的影响表现为提高30～50 cm土层的水分含量,在水分涵蓄方面优于撂荒地.但与天然草地相比未形成密丛型禾草,群落稳定性差,草地群落的演替方向具有不确定性.  相似文献   

The influence of freezing drizzle on wire icing during freezing fog events   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

周悦  牛生杰  吕晶晶 《大气科学进展》2013,30(4):1053-1069

Both direct and indirect effects of freezing drizzle on ice accretion were analyzed for ten freezing drizzle events during a comprehensive ice thickness, fog, and precipitation observation campaign carried out during the winter of 2008 and 2009 at Enshi Radar Station (3017'N, 10916'E), Hubei Province, China. The growth rate of ice thickness was 0.85 mm h－1 during the freezing drizzle period, while the rate was only 0.4 mm h－1 without sleet and freezing drizzle. The rain intensity, liquid water content (LWC), and diameter of freezing drizzle stayed at low values. The development of microphysical properties of fog was suppressed in the freezing drizzle period. A threshold diameter (Dc) was proposed to estimate the inuence of freezing drizzle on different size ranges of fog droplets. Fog droplets with a diameter less thanDc would be affected slightly by freezing drizzle, while larger fog droplets would be affected signicantly. Dc had a correlation with the average rain intensity, with a correlation coefficient of 0.78. The relationships among the microphysical properties of fog droplets were all positive when the effect of freezing drizzle was weak, while they became poor positive correlations, or even negative correlations during freezing drizzle period. The direct contribution of freezing drizzle to ice thickness was about 14.5%. Considering both the direct and indirect effects, we suggest that freezing drizzle could act as a catalyst causing serious icing conditions.  相似文献   

Are artificial neural network techniques relevant for the estimation of longitudinal dispersion coefficient in rivers? / Les techniques de réseaux de neurones artificiels sont-elles pertinentes pour estimer le coefficient de dispersion longitudinale en rivières?     

《水文科学杂志》2013,58(1)

Abstract

Abstract Accurate application of the longitudinal dispersion model requires that specially designed experimental studies are performed in the river reach under consideration. Such studies are usually very expensive, so in order to quantify the longitudinal dispersion coefficient, as an alternative approach, various researchers have proposed numerous empirical formulae based on hydraulic and morphometric characteristics. The results are presented of the application of artificial neural networks as a parameter estimation technique. Five different cases were considered with the network trained for different arrangements of input nodes, such as channel depth, channel width, cross-sectionally averaged water velocity, shear velocity and sinuosity index. In the case where the sinuosity index is included as an input node, the results turned out to be better than those presented by other authors.  相似文献   

Approaches for delineating landslide hazard areas using different training sites in an advanced artificial neural network model   总被引：10，自引：0，他引：10  

Biswajeet Pradhan  Ahmed M. Youssef  Renuganth Varathrajoo 《地球空间信息科学学报》2010,13(2):93-102

The current paper presents landslide hazard analysis around the Cameron area, Malaysia, using advanced artificial neural networks with the help of Geographic Information System (GIS) and remote sensing techniques. Landslide locations were determined in the study area by interpretation of aerial photographs and from field investigations. Topographical and geological data as well as satellite images were collected, processed, and constructed into a spatial database using GIS and image processing. Ten factors were selected for landslide hazard including: 1) factors related to topography as slope, aspect, and curvature; 2) factors related to geology as lithology and distance from lineament; 3) factors related to drainage as distance from drainage; and 4) factors extracted from TM satellite images as land cover and the vegetation index value. An advanced artificial neural network model has been used to analyze these factors in order to establish the landslide hazard map. The back-propagation training method has been used for the selection of the five different random training sites in order to calculate the factor’s weight and then the landslide hazard indices were computed for each of the five hazard maps. Finally, the landslide hazard maps (five cases) were prepared using GIS tools. Results of the landslides hazard maps have been verified using landslide test locations that were not used during the training phase of the neural network. Our findings of verification results show an accuracy of 69%, 75%, 70%, 83% and 86% for training sites 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 respectively. GIS data was used to efficiently analyze the large volume of data, and the artificial neural network proved to be an effective tool for landslide hazard analysis. The verification results showed sufficient agreement between the presumptive hazard map and the existing data on landslide areas.  相似文献   

Isotopes and geochemistry in a managed aquifer recharge scheme: a case study of fresh water injection at the Damascus University Campus,Syria     

Z. Kattan  N. Kadkoy  S. Nasser  M. Safadi  A. Hamed 《水文研究》2010,24(13):1791-1805

A combination of stable isotopes (¹⁸O and ²H) and hydrochemistry has been applied to investigate storage processes in relation to aquifer storage and recovery (ASR) of the shallow alluvial Quaternary aquifer in Damascus basin. The stored water, entirely taken from the Figeh springs during flood periods, was injected in a single well having a brackish groundwater. Water samples were collected from four observation wells drilled in the Damascus University Campus (DUC) site during a 3‐year period (2006–2008). The injectant water, which deviates in its chemical and isotopic signatures from that of the ambient groundwater, shows that the stored water plume remains within close proximity to the injection well (IW) (<≈ 100 m). Thus, only two wells (W13 and W14) located at a distance less than 80 m from the injection point were affected by this injection. The observation wells located at longer distances from the IW (≈145 m and ≈ 600 m for wells W15 and WHz, respectively) were completely unaffected by the injection. Although most of the chemical and isotopic parameters usefully reflected the mixing process that occurs between the injectant water and ambient groundwater, the stable isotope (¹⁸O) and chloride (Cl⁻) were the most sensitive parameters that quickly reflect this signature. Using a simple mass balance, the calculated proportion of injectant water reaching the well W13 was in the range of 50–90%. This proportion was even lower (30–55%) in the case of well W14. Although the drought event prevailing during this study did not much help to inject further amounts of water, higher than the injected volume (0·2416 M m³) and also not favourable to better evaluate the fate and subsurface hydrological processes, these findings offer encouragement to continue the ASR activities, as an alternative way for better management of water resources in this basin facing intensive problems. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Neuro-fuzzy models employing wavelet analysis for suspended sediment concentration prediction in rivers     

Seyed Ahmad Mirbagheri  Taher Rajaee  Amir Alikhani 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(7):1175-1189

Abstract

The study of sediment load is important for its implications to the environment and water resources engineering. Four models were considered in the study of suspended sediment concentration prediction: artificial neural networks (ANNs), neuro-fuzzy model (NF), conjunction of wavelet analysis and neuro-fuzzy (WNF) model, and the conventional sediment rating curve (SRC) method. Using data from a US Geological Survey gauging station, the suspended sediment concentration predicted by the WNF model was in satisfactory agreement with the measured data. Also the proposed WNF model generated reasonable predictions for the extreme values. The cumulative suspended sediment load estimated by this model was much higher than that predicted by the other models, and is close to the observed data. However, in the current modelling, the ANN, NF and SRC models underestimated sediment load. The WNF model was successful in reproducing the hysteresis phenomenon, but the SRC method was not able to model this behaviour. In general, the results showed that the NF model performed better than the ANN and SRC models.

Citation Mirbagheri, S. A., Nourani, V., Rajaee, T. & Alikhani, A. (2010) Neuro-fuzzy models employing wavelet analysis for suspended sediment concentration prediction in rivers. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(7), 1175–1189.  相似文献